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Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 1999 - with Europe still in recession and U.S' demand sluggish, world trade faces considerable headwinds for 2013. According to Intermodal's Tasos Papadopoulos, "Southeast Asia has lately become an engine of global economic growth; since the Asian crisis of the mid 90’s the region "has been in the gym and working hard" and is showing much more resilience now".

The shipbroker's analyst noted that 'countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Myanmar have come out of a prolonged economic slump and are now forecast for a sustained economic growth amid increasing number of middle-income earners. The Philippines, for example, which once earned the nickname the "sick man of Asia", announced earlier this month that its GDP rose by 7.1% in the July-September period which is pretty close to China's growth levels! In other words, the Chinese economy is slowing down, while SE Asian growth is still picking up.

Investors are shifting their money towards Southeast Asian markets where strong consumer spending is expected to boost domestic demand while the region’s deca-millionairs (those earning $10 million or more) already outnumber those in Europe and are expected to exceed those in the United States within the next decade. Over the past three months, stocks in the Philippines rose 8% and in Indonesia climbed 6%. According to Dai-chi Life Research Institute Inc., $1.5-2bn was invested in the stock exchanges of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines between late 2011 and October this year. Indonesia, which has a population of 240m - 4th most populated country in the world - offers the biggest domestic market in SE Asia and an increasing predictions that she will be ranked as the 4th largest economy by 2050" he said.

Papadopoulos added that "at this point, it is worth noting that Indonesians’ have been very active in the SnP market in 2012 acquiring modern tonnage, with notable mention going towards the ex “Nanos” (50,296dwt-blt 02) at low $ 14m, ex “Energy Angel” (77,697dwt-blt 98) at $ 12,6m or more recently the reported sale of “Pegasus Island” (77,830dwt-blt 02) at low $ 12m" he said.

According to the report, "China and Japan are also eyeing S. Eastern markets as a destination for their products and expect the region to develop further in the future. Chinese steelmakers, Baosteel Group Corp and Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corp have separately invested into building steel plants in South China, while planning to export a total of 10m tons per year of steel products to the SE Asian region. JFE Steel Corp of Japan, together with Taiwanese company E-United Group, is also examining a plan to build a 3.5m ton integrated steel works in Vietnam. Formosa Plastics Group, Taiwan's top petrochemical company, is investing about $10bn to construct its first steel plant for domestic and overseas supply. The project includes the development of a deep water port able to accommodate a 300k dwt dry bulker".

Intermodal's report concluded by nothing that "we have to consider that the business environment in all these countries is of high risk. Political stability is not guaranteed and past experience should become a lesson; in Thailand, after the royal succession takes place, there is a high risk that social stability may not to be ensured, in Myanmar, the transition towards democracy - after almost 50 years of military rule - is not an easy task at all while in Indonesia a bureaucrat who spearheaded the export restrictions on natural resources might be the winner of the 2014 presidential elections...With all this in mind one might wonder what the future may have in stall".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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