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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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