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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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