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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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