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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 July 12
BUMI ACHIEVES HIGHER SELLING PRICE IN FIRST QUARTER
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal producer and exporter, has successfully maintained a higher sales margin, des ...
Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is ...
Monday, 02 July 12
ORPHEUS STRENGTHENS REVENUE STREAM WITH NEW ROYALTY AGREEMENT AT THE B2 COAL PROJECT
Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) is pleased to advise that it has executed a life of mine Royalty Agreement with Indonesian mining contractor PT Debbia Mini ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
AUSTRALIAS CARBON TAX - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Climate Change
Climate change and global warming have now become buzzwords the world over. The disastrous consequences for global ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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