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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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