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Wednesday, 02 May 12
CHINA BLACKOUTS HIGHLIGHT PRICING POLICY WEAKNESS - FITCH
Fitch reported that, the likelihood of further electricity blackouts in China this summer underlines Fitch's view of the basic problem facing thermal electricity generators - that the tariff framework is not sustainable in the long term.
The problem centres on China's thermal or coal-fired plants, which in 2011 represented 72.5% of total electricity production of 4,692.8TWh, and are likely to remain the backbone of electricity generation for the foreseeable future. The problem is not with China's national electricity grid, which is well developed, but rather with the non-viability of the pricing mechanism for the coal-fired generators.
The Chinese thermal generators are unwilling to produce excess electricity in peak periods when their marginal generation costs are above the tariffs the government will allow them to charge the grid companies. Tariff adjustments have not been timely or sufficient despite the rising cost of coal, as the government has prioritised the management of inflation - thereby constraining profitability. The weak economics have also discouraged private-sector investment, while the state-linked thermal generators - Huaneng International ('BB+'/Stable), Datang International ('BB'/Stable), China Power International Development ('BB'/Stable), and Huadian International ('BB-'/Stable) - are now struggling with substantially weakened balance sheets.
Coal input prices for the thermal generators have increased dramatically over the past three years to end-2011, rising by an average of 16% pa. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has only allowed nationwide electricity tariffs to rise once in the last two years, by around 5% for non-residential customers in December 2011. Some tariff increases also occurred in selective provinces in April 2011, but the impact on generators' profitability was limited.
A 5% cap on annual coal price increases was introduced along with the December 2011 electricity tariff revision, but this applied only to contracted coal prices. These capped prices only represent around 30%-40% of the total needs of most thermal generators. Accordingly, large amounts of coal have to be bought on the spot market at substantially higher prices, making excess electricity production an uneconomic proposition. The substantial premium - typically 30% - on spot market prices against the capped contract coal price results in coal producers seeking ways to reduce their contracted sales in favour of spot sales, which is steadily eroding any benefit from the coal price caps.
A longer-term problem, and a potential cause of an eventual structural shortfall in generation capacity, is that limited profit - or losses - from thermal operations have since 2008 led to new capex in the industry being diverted away from thermal and into wind, hydro and vertical integration via coal mine acquisitions. A National Energy Administration (NEA) report dated 30 January 30 2012 confirmed that China's investment in thermal power assets fell again in 2011, by 26%, to CNY105.4bn. This trend, which cannot be reversed quickly due to the typical minimum two-year lead time to build new thermal capacity, is a serious concern given China's continued dependence on coal for its power generation.
The Chinese thermal generators are likely to face sustained weak operating cash flows and negative free cash generation under this heavily regulated environment, a situation which Fitch believes to be unsustainable in light of the continued growth in the Chinese economy. The agency believes that China is looking to introduce price reforms across the energy industries, but achieving a truly cost-reflective tariff regime is likely to take several more years, and will require a favourable inflationary climate. In the meantime, demand will continue to outstrip supply, even if - theoretically - the capacity exists within the generation system.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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