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Wednesday, 02 May 12
CHINA BLACKOUTS HIGHLIGHT PRICING POLICY WEAKNESS - FITCH
Fitch reported that, the likelihood of further electricity blackouts in China this summer underlines Fitch's view of the basic problem facing thermal electricity generators - that the tariff framework is not sustainable in the long term.
The problem centres on China's thermal or coal-fired plants, which in 2011 represented 72.5% of total electricity production of 4,692.8TWh, and are likely to remain the backbone of electricity generation for the foreseeable future. The problem is not with China's national electricity grid, which is well developed, but rather with the non-viability of the pricing mechanism for the coal-fired generators.
The Chinese thermal generators are unwilling to produce excess electricity in peak periods when their marginal generation costs are above the tariffs the government will allow them to charge the grid companies. Tariff adjustments have not been timely or sufficient despite the rising cost of coal, as the government has prioritised the management of inflation - thereby constraining profitability. The weak economics have also discouraged private-sector investment, while the state-linked thermal generators - Huaneng International ('BB+'/Stable), Datang International ('BB'/Stable), China Power International Development ('BB'/Stable), and Huadian International ('BB-'/Stable) - are now struggling with substantially weakened balance sheets.
Coal input prices for the thermal generators have increased dramatically over the past three years to end-2011, rising by an average of 16% pa. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has only allowed nationwide electricity tariffs to rise once in the last two years, by around 5% for non-residential customers in December 2011. Some tariff increases also occurred in selective provinces in April 2011, but the impact on generators' profitability was limited.
A 5% cap on annual coal price increases was introduced along with the December 2011 electricity tariff revision, but this applied only to contracted coal prices. These capped prices only represent around 30%-40% of the total needs of most thermal generators. Accordingly, large amounts of coal have to be bought on the spot market at substantially higher prices, making excess electricity production an uneconomic proposition. The substantial premium - typically 30% - on spot market prices against the capped contract coal price results in coal producers seeking ways to reduce their contracted sales in favour of spot sales, which is steadily eroding any benefit from the coal price caps.
A longer-term problem, and a potential cause of an eventual structural shortfall in generation capacity, is that limited profit - or losses - from thermal operations have since 2008 led to new capex in the industry being diverted away from thermal and into wind, hydro and vertical integration via coal mine acquisitions. A National Energy Administration (NEA) report dated 30 January 30 2012 confirmed that China's investment in thermal power assets fell again in 2011, by 26%, to CNY105.4bn. This trend, which cannot be reversed quickly due to the typical minimum two-year lead time to build new thermal capacity, is a serious concern given China's continued dependence on coal for its power generation.
The Chinese thermal generators are likely to face sustained weak operating cash flows and negative free cash generation under this heavily regulated environment, a situation which Fitch believes to be unsustainable in light of the continued growth in the Chinese economy. The agency believes that China is looking to introduce price reforms across the energy industries, but achieving a truly cost-reflective tariff regime is likely to take several more years, and will require a favourable inflationary climate. In the meantime, demand will continue to outstrip supply, even if - theoretically - the capacity exists within the generation system.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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