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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS PICKED UP IN 2011, BUT 2012 EXPECTED TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) starting the year on a sour note, losing 114 points and ending yesterday’s session, the first of the new year, ...
Wednesday, 04 January 12
MAHAGENCO TO IMPORT LOW MOISTURE COAL
COALspot.com - Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. is the state power generation utility owned by Government of Maharashtra, intends to proc ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
INDONESIA COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL AGAIN
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the January 2012 coal reference price at US$ 109.29 per ton or US$ 3.3 ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of ...
Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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