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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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