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Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight fall of 0.16%. Capesizes were the main drivers of this trend, with the market falling by 0.71%. Still, the rest of the market segments were higher, with Panamaxes leading the pack, with an increase of 1.38%. In a recent report, consultant analysts PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PwC) said that the size of the Capesize fleet is forecast to rocket over the next three years at the same time as demand growth for seaborne iron ore is set to stagnate. In its report ‘Dry Bulk Shipping - Capes of no Hope?’, PwC said that there are currently 1,200 Capesize vessels worldwide at a value of $45billion but it is estimated that a further 450 more are on order over the next three years which will flood the market. While some of these orders may be delayed or cancelled, the global order book implies there will be rapid growth in seaborne transport of iron ore and coal, the main commodities carried by Capesizes.
David Smith, Assistant Director, PwC Strategy said that "as in other sectors of the shipping industry, dry bulk market participants are assuming that the next decade will look very much like the last in terms of patterns of trade flow growth. This has led to continued orders of new vessels on the assumption that Chinese demand for iron ore will continue to grow rapidly, but our estimates show that growth will be much lower in the future. The reality is that the ‘expected’ growth demand for iron ore is unlikely to materialise given the already high rate of infrastructure investment in China. This will leave a substantially increased number of vessels chasing a broadly unchanged level of cargo, with negative implications for rates. The situation, he added, will be exacerbated by the vessel building programmes being undertaken by the large mining companies. This will decrease the amount of cargo available on the spot market, at a time when the fleet is increasing dramatically, said Mr. Smith.
He went on to mention that "while rates in the Capesize sector have improved over the last three months, we see this as a temporary respite. Continued overcapacity is likely to push rates back towards operating costs, creating significant pressure for owners trading in the spot market.” “The worry, he said, is that these pressures will not be confined to the ship owning community. Low rates over a prolonged period will make it difficult for ship owners to keep up payments to the banks which have made substantial investments in the sector. Major sources of shipping finance include the UK, Germany, Greece, and Scandinavia, with UK banks alone having loans of over $50bn to the shipping sector” concluded Mr. Smith.
Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipowner Golden Ocean said that “most analysts agree that the dry bulk market does not have a demand problem. Iron ore and coal imports to China and coal imports to India are expected to grow at a steady pace over the next 5 years. A lot of new iron ore capacity will enter the market from 2013 onwards, which could put a downward pressure on international iron prices. This should support the freight market due to expensive, low quality Chinese iron ore production. However, the order book for the remainder of this year and 2012 is still a major concern and is the main reason why the forward freight assessment (FFA) is in backwardation.Despite the positive development in the freight market, asset values dropped further during third quarter. A five year old Capesize was priced at $39 million while a newbuilding resale was priced at approximately $50 million. There is a lot of uncertainty related to asset values going forward, but we observe that more forecasters state that they see limited downside” said Golden Ocean.
Analyzing the trade patterns noted during the third quarter, the company mentioned that “the third quarter of 2011 was yet another quarter which surpassed most analysts’ expectations. Given the large order book with record high deliveries both this year and next, it has been difficult to imagine a demand scenario which was able to cope with supply growth and maintain utilization at levels giving owners of dry bulk tonnage decent returns. Capesizes experienced a steady rise from bleak levels. Iron ore is the main commodity carried by Capesizes and China increased its import by more than 17 percent compared to same quarter previous year. Coal imports to China increased by almost 30 percent year-onyear.
In addition, other Asian countries contributed to the strong demand growth. Korea increased its iron ore imports by more than 20 percent and the rebuilding of Japan after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami also contributed positively. These high growth numbers alone are still not sufficient to explain a utilization rate, which averaged 85 percent last quarter. Congestion remains as a positive factor for owners and between six to eight percent of vessel capacity was tied up in the third quarter” said Golden Ocean.
It further mentioned that “Chinese coastal trade increased by 17 percent during the third quarter and more than 300 million tons of dry bulk commodities was carried off the Chinese coast. On an annual basis, this represents 20 million dwt capacity. We have not seen the same focus on slow steaming in dry bulk as in other segments. However, analysis shows that average speed of the sailing fleet has dropped by more than two knots since 2008. This is not due to an effort to improve market conditions but rather a function of high bunker prices and optimizing earnings. Still, the focus has to be on the order book. So far this year approximately 205 vessels in the Capesize segment have been delivered, but at the same time almost 70 vessels of the same size have been scrapped. Delivery ratio compared to the official order book remains below 70 percent” concluded Golden Ocean.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
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Showing 4921 to 4925 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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