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Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight fall of 0.16%. Capesizes were the main drivers of this trend, with the market falling by 0.71%. Still, the rest of the market segments were higher, with Panamaxes leading the pack, with an increase of 1.38%. In a recent report, consultant analysts PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PwC) said that the size of the Capesize fleet is forecast to rocket over the next three years at the same time as demand growth for seaborne iron ore is set to stagnate. In its report ‘Dry Bulk Shipping - Capes of no Hope?’, PwC said that there are currently 1,200 Capesize vessels worldwide at a value of $45billion but it is estimated that a further 450 more are on order over the next three years which will flood the market. While some of these orders may be delayed or cancelled, the global order book implies there will be rapid growth in seaborne transport of iron ore and coal, the main commodities carried by Capesizes.
David Smith, Assistant Director, PwC Strategy said that "as in other sectors of the shipping industry, dry bulk market participants are assuming that the next decade will look very much like the last in terms of patterns of trade flow growth. This has led to continued orders of new vessels on the assumption that Chinese demand for iron ore will continue to grow rapidly, but our estimates show that growth will be much lower in the future. The reality is that the ‘expected’ growth demand for iron ore is unlikely to materialise given the already high rate of infrastructure investment in China. This will leave a substantially increased number of vessels chasing a broadly unchanged level of cargo, with negative implications for rates. The situation, he added, will be exacerbated by the vessel building programmes being undertaken by the large mining companies. This will decrease the amount of cargo available on the spot market, at a time when the fleet is increasing dramatically, said Mr. Smith.
He went on to mention that "while rates in the Capesize sector have improved over the last three months, we see this as a temporary respite. Continued overcapacity is likely to push rates back towards operating costs, creating significant pressure for owners trading in the spot market.” “The worry, he said, is that these pressures will not be confined to the ship owning community. Low rates over a prolonged period will make it difficult for ship owners to keep up payments to the banks which have made substantial investments in the sector. Major sources of shipping finance include the UK, Germany, Greece, and Scandinavia, with UK banks alone having loans of over $50bn to the shipping sector” concluded Mr. Smith.
Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipowner Golden Ocean said that “most analysts agree that the dry bulk market does not have a demand problem. Iron ore and coal imports to China and coal imports to India are expected to grow at a steady pace over the next 5 years. A lot of new iron ore capacity will enter the market from 2013 onwards, which could put a downward pressure on international iron prices. This should support the freight market due to expensive, low quality Chinese iron ore production. However, the order book for the remainder of this year and 2012 is still a major concern and is the main reason why the forward freight assessment (FFA) is in backwardation.Despite the positive development in the freight market, asset values dropped further during third quarter. A five year old Capesize was priced at $39 million while a newbuilding resale was priced at approximately $50 million. There is a lot of uncertainty related to asset values going forward, but we observe that more forecasters state that they see limited downside” said Golden Ocean.
Analyzing the trade patterns noted during the third quarter, the company mentioned that “the third quarter of 2011 was yet another quarter which surpassed most analysts’ expectations. Given the large order book with record high deliveries both this year and next, it has been difficult to imagine a demand scenario which was able to cope with supply growth and maintain utilization at levels giving owners of dry bulk tonnage decent returns. Capesizes experienced a steady rise from bleak levels. Iron ore is the main commodity carried by Capesizes and China increased its import by more than 17 percent compared to same quarter previous year. Coal imports to China increased by almost 30 percent year-onyear.
In addition, other Asian countries contributed to the strong demand growth. Korea increased its iron ore imports by more than 20 percent and the rebuilding of Japan after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami also contributed positively. These high growth numbers alone are still not sufficient to explain a utilization rate, which averaged 85 percent last quarter. Congestion remains as a positive factor for owners and between six to eight percent of vessel capacity was tied up in the third quarter” said Golden Ocean.
It further mentioned that “Chinese coastal trade increased by 17 percent during the third quarter and more than 300 million tons of dry bulk commodities was carried off the Chinese coast. On an annual basis, this represents 20 million dwt capacity. We have not seen the same focus on slow steaming in dry bulk as in other segments. However, analysis shows that average speed of the sailing fleet has dropped by more than two knots since 2008. This is not due to an effort to improve market conditions but rather a function of high bunker prices and optimizing earnings. Still, the focus has to be on the order book. So far this year approximately 205 vessels in the Capesize segment have been delivered, but at the same time almost 70 vessels of the same size have been scrapped. Delivery ratio compared to the official order book remains below 70 percent” concluded Golden Ocean.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
MINERS MAKE CASE FOR RESUMING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, problems with the renegotiation of mining contracts in the country are far from over, as agreements on several cruci ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
COAL SHIPMENT OF TIANJIN PORT REACHED 6.72 MLN TONNES IN NOVEMBER - STEEL HOME / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tianjin port shipped 6.72 million tonnes of coal in November, decreasing 600,000 tonnes versus 7.32 million tonnes in October, while up 21.09% or 1. ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
NEW CLAUSE PUBLISHED FOR SLOW STEAMING - BIMCO
Many owners and operators faced with high bunker prices are considering implementing slow steaming regimes to save fuel and to assist with capacity ...
Monday, 26 December 11
NEW EXPORT TAX PLAN GREETED WITH PRAISE AND CRITICISM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the Indonesia's leading english news paper reported that, both praise and criticism showered the government’s plan t ...
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Showing 4911 to 4915 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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