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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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