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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Thursday, 11 February 10
THE INDIAN MARKET SOFTENING A BIT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The BSI has gone down for 3 weeks now but it is more a reflection of the Pac market. Activity in the Atl remains solid and rates remain firm ...
Thursday, 11 February 10
SOUTH AFRICA COAL EXPORTS DROP TO INDIA, CHINA
South African coal exports to India from Richards Bay Coal Terminal fell 39% in January from December's levels while shipments to China dropped 55% ...
Thursday, 11 February 10
JSW STEEL IS CLOSE TO ACQUIRING TWO COAL MINES IN THE US
“We are in advanced stages of negotiation and the deal will be completed in a month or two,” a company official told DNA Money on the co ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
BHP TAKES MARUWAI SALE OFF THE TABLE, MINISTRY SAYS
Australian mining giant BHP Billiton may cancel a plan to sell a stake in its coal mining project in Maruwai, East Kalimantan, an official at the En ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
JPMORGAN FORECASTS A 5.7% GROWTH IN SEABORNE IRON ORE SHIPMENTS, 3.8% FOR COAL AND GRAIN THIS YEAR
This year volumes of iron ore transportation by sea may grow to 5.7%, coal and grain up 3.8% over numbers in 2009, Ukrrudprom reports citing analyst ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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