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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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