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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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