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Monday, 11 July 11
REFLECTIONS ON THE FLEET REACHING ONE BILLION TONNES - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
“A billion gross tonnes of shipping” has a nice ring to it. It presents the industry as a business of substance, with its 85,000 ships worth almost $1 trillion. So the news that on 1st July 2011 the world merchant fleet passed this important milestone deserves a little reflection on where we have come from and where we are going.
55 Years of Change
The last anniversary of this sort was in 1955 when the fleet reached 100 million gross tons. But today’s fleet is very different. Of course it has grown tenfold, averaging 4.2% per year, but back in 1955 shipping was also very different. Liners and tramps dominated cargo and the premium cargo was people. Fifty six years and 100,000+ investment decisions later everything has changed. Air liners replaced passenger liners; containerships replaced cargo liners and bulkers replaced tramps. Only tankers survived and they are much bigger.
Investment Roller-Coaster
Although this sounds like neat strategic development, for shipping investors it was a nightmare because the growth path was unbelievably volatile. Business started with a surge of growth - between 1955 and 1975 the growth rate accelerated from 4% to 10.2% as investors queued up to order super-tankers and bulkers, funded by the emerging Eurodollar market. That phase peaked in 1975 and by 1985 growth had slumped to -1%. Then it all started again, with growth surging to 8+% in 2010. Part of this volatility was caused by fluctuations in trade growth which was very fast (8%pa) in the run up to the 1975 peak, then grew by just 1% pa in the 1980s and by around 3% since then. But fleet growth was supercharged by investor’s enthusiasm for playing the market using easy Eurodollar finance.
Productivity Puzzle
One surprising lesson from all this is that, despite the chaotic boom and bust environment, the industry was very successful in delivering the new technology which the globalising world economy needed - a state-of-the-art fleet of tankers, bulk carriers and containerships, all carefully graduated in size to meet the complex needs of the modern trading world for cheap sea transport. Another surprise is that the fleet’s transport “productivity” did not increase very much. In 1955 100m GT transported 820mt of cargo, about 8.2t per GT. Today 1 billion GT delivers around 8.4bn tons of cargo, an average of 8.4t per GT.
A Job Well Done
So there you have it. Shipping cycles are about getting the right ships for the trade, at the cheapest freight rates. After 100,000 angst ridden investment decisions shipping investors have really delivered the goods - a billion tons of ships, tailored to the complex needs of the modern global economy, and super low freight rates. On which note, an extra pat on the back to Capesize owners who are doing such a splendid job today, regardless of cost.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
Friday, 29 July 11
5300 ADB COAL WILL BE AT US$ 60/TON IN THIS QUARTER - RAIN
COALspot.com - PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) seeing the average selling price of its coal for the third quarter of this year will increase t ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
PTBA'S COAL PRICES UP IN H1 2011
COALspot.com - Bukit Asam’s coal prices in the second half of 2011 will expected to be higher than the first half of this year, said Sukrisno, ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
RESOURCE ALAM 1H PROFIT SURGES 208 PERCENT
Indonesia's tenth largest coal miner in term of concessions, PT Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI), part of Rain Group, today reported a skyrocket net ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES FURTHER DOWN ON ADDED PRESSURE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an indicator of dry bulk freight rates has reached new lows this week, with yesterday’s session ending further dow ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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