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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 21 December 10
CIL TOLD TO SCOUT MINES ABROAD TO BRIDGE COAL DEFICIT - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, The government asked state-owned CIL to look for acquiring assets abroad to meet the domestic shortfall of coal.
&q ...
Tuesday, 21 December 10
SHIPPING INDUSTRY RECOVERING, BUT STILL HAMPERED BY OVERSUPPLY OF VESSELS AND DEPRESSED FREIGHT RATES - UNCTAD / HELLENIC SHIPPING
International seaborne trade contracted by 4.5 per cent in 2009, reports UNCTAD´s Review of Maritime Transport 2010 . That decline put seaborn ...
Sunday, 19 December 10
SPOT SUPRAMAX VESSELS WERE FIXED AROUND US$ 13,000 PER DAY FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be soft with the BDI down by 96 points and closed at 1,999 points, touching below 2,000 points on Fri ...
Friday, 17 December 10
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS EXPERIENCED A SOFTER TENDENCY THIS WEEK - FEARNBULK
Handy
Monotonous Atlantic markets with little fresh enquiry in Black Sea/Med/Continent. Large Supras are achieving usd 21/22k for TA rounds - 2/3 ...
Friday, 17 December 10
NALCO SHORTLISTS COAL FIRMS FOR INDONESIA PROJECT - BUSINESS-STANDARD
Business-Standard reported that, State-owned NALCO today said it has shortlisted two firms for supply of coal for its Rs 18,000-crore (US$ 3,953,003 ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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