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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 22 December 10
INDONESIAN COAL LOAD PORT WEATHER CONDITION AND DELAYS
COALspot.com - The several leading shipping agents in Indonesia, said due to rainy season in Indonesia, loading activities in coal loading ports hav ...
Wednesday, 22 December 10
COAL INDIA CLOSE TO BUYING 15% STAKE IN AUSTRALIAN MINE - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Coal India (CIL) is close to buying a stake between 10% to 15% in an Australian mine owned by Peabody, a US company.
...
Wednesday, 22 December 10
CAPESIZE FUTURES MARKET RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR DRIFT DOWN IN 2011 - BRS
Nearly two months of weekly declines in the Baltic Capesize Index were finally halted last week with a small 1% increase Friday-to-Friday. The impro ...
Wednesday, 22 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION AMID HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market isn’t exhibiting a “festive” behavior, thus cheering ship owners and investors alike. Instead, the industry&rs ...
Tuesday, 21 December 10
CHINA COAL CAP TO BOOST GLOBAL M&A - FINANCIER WORLD WIDE
Financier World Wide reported that, Chinese state-run media has reported that the Central Government intends to cap domestic coal production for fea ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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