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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvi ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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