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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 February 11
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL EXPORTS SURGE, BUOYED BY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA AND INDIA
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) announced today that 2010 exports have exceeded the last two years’ performance, said in a re ...
Monday, 07 February 11
RBCT SHIPPED 28.67 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JANUARY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4,389,925 MT of coal in January 20 ...
Sunday, 06 February 11
THE PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PER DAY RESPECTIVELY
COALspot.com - With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER HAS SIGNED A DECREE FOR COAL TRANSPORTATION PERMITS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy, Darwin Minister Saleh said, that, he had signed a decree for transportation and sale of coal, which was the ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
ANCHORAGE LOADING POINT MOVED TO MUARA JAWA
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Transportation Republic Indonesia has announced that, the loading point at Muara Berau, East kalimantan h ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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