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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Thursday, 25 November 10
JSW ENERGY BUYS CANADIAN COAL FIRM FOR $411 MN - NDTV PROFIT
NDTV Profit reported that, Sajjan Jindal-owned JSW Energy on Wednesday said it has entered into an agreement to buy out British Virgin Islands-based ...
Thursday, 25 November 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL GOING STRONG THIS WEEK, CAPESIZE SECTOR LOSING STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum yesterday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) gaining a further 0.64% to e ...
Wednesday, 24 November 10
COAL PRODUCTION PREDICTED TO CLIMB IN SUNNIER 2011 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s coal producers are expected to increase output by 13 percent in 2011, thanks to predicted better ...
Monday, 22 November 10
RUSSIA'S KTK HAS PRODUCED 4.59 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FIRST 9 MONTHS OR AN INCREASE OF 5% YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com (Press Release) - KTK has produced 4.59 mln tonnes of coal in first nine months or an increase of 5% year-on-year.
Kuzbasskaya Topli ...
Sunday, 21 November 10
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY SLIGHTLY FIRM UP NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its down fall with BDI down by 6.83 pct and closed at 2,155 points.
According to Vistaar Shipping of S ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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