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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 28 November 10
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE NERVOUS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to remain uncertain even though only cape index was down by 8.31 pct.
Overall the market seems to be ...
Friday, 26 November 10
INDIA WILL IMPORT 100 MLN TONS OF COAL BY 2012 - LAKSHMINARAYANA
COALspot.com – “India’s coal shortfall will reach 100 million mt by 2011-12”, said Lakshminarayana, Vice Preside ...
Friday, 26 November 10
CHINAS COAL INVENTORY STAYS HIGH FOR 22 MONTHS AT 220 MLN T, ASSOCIATION
Xinhua News Agency reported that, China’s coal inventory has stayed high and unchanged for 22 months to be around 220 million tonnes, reflecti ...
Friday, 26 November 10
DR WOLFGANG CIESLIK TO HEAD GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com – (Press Release): The Management Board of the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V.) has elected D ...
Thursday, 25 November 10
INDONESIAN ROUNDS ARE ACHIEVING IN THE LOW 10S, OWNERS ARE NOT KEEN FOR TRIPS TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
HANDY
Uneventful week - Supra/Panamax stems ex USG to China/Korea/Japan are the main focus + grains ex. Argentina. The Atlantic market activity re ...
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Showing 5511 to 5515 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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