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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 28 November 10
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE NERVOUS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to remain uncertain even though only cape index was down by 8.31 pct.
Overall the market seems to be ...
Friday, 26 November 10
INDIA WILL IMPORT 100 MLN TONS OF COAL BY 2012 - LAKSHMINARAYANA
COALspot.com – “India’s coal shortfall will reach 100 million mt by 2011-12”, said Lakshminarayana, Vice Preside ...
Friday, 26 November 10
CHINAS COAL INVENTORY STAYS HIGH FOR 22 MONTHS AT 220 MLN T, ASSOCIATION
Xinhua News Agency reported that, China’s coal inventory has stayed high and unchanged for 22 months to be around 220 million tonnes, reflecti ...
Friday, 26 November 10
DR WOLFGANG CIESLIK TO HEAD GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com – (Press Release): The Management Board of the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V.) has elected D ...
Thursday, 25 November 10
INDONESIAN ROUNDS ARE ACHIEVING IN THE LOW 10S, OWNERS ARE NOT KEEN FOR TRIPS TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
HANDY
Uneventful week - Supra/Panamax stems ex USG to China/Korea/Japan are the main focus + grains ex. Argentina. The Atlantic market activity re ...
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Showing 5511 to 5515 news of total 6871 |
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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