We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 13 December 10
ICE FUTURES EUROPE TO LAUNCH IHS MCCLOSKEY INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS FOB MARKER COAL CONTRACTS - MONDOVISIONE
Mondovisione reported that, IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE: ICE), a leading operator of global regulated futures exchanges, clearing houses and over ...
Monday, 13 December 10
NALCO TO START WORK ON RS 18K CR ($ 4,010,695,091) INDONESIAN PROJECT BY JUNE - MSN
MSN reported that, State-owned NALCO today said it has selected UAE-based RAK Minerals as JV partner for its Rs 18,000 crore (US$ 4,010,695,091 ...
Monday, 13 December 10
DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES COAL FORECASTS ON MARKET SHORTAGE - BLOOMBERG
Deutsche Bank AG raised price forecasts for thermal coal by as much as 17 percent on expectations that a shortage of the fuel will widen over the ne ...
Monday, 13 December 10
K SERA SERA TO SPEND RS325CR TO BUY COAL,OIL & GAS FIRMS STAKE - LIVE MINT
The company might have to dole out around Rs 225 crore (US$ 50,122,522) for picking up the majority stake in the coal mine in Indonesia and around R ...
Thursday, 09 December 10
OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS BOUND TO KEEP DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SUBDUED DURING 2011 SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An oversupply of vessels is expected to keep freight rates from flying as high as in recent years said a relative shipping report from BIMCO’s ...
|
|
|
Showing 5496 to 5500 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
|
| |
| |
|
