We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 15 December 10
LARGE ORDERBOOK TO HINDER 2011 DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND DESPITE INCREASED DEMAND SAYS PARAGON SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A large orderbook which currently stands at 53% of the existing fleet is expected to render 2011 another challenging year for the dry bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 15 December 10
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS ARE LOOKING UP, LARGER ONES FAIL TO DELIVER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market lost further ground at the beginning of the week, in what could prove one of the slowest periods ship owners have been faced. Ye ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
COAL IMPORTS MAY INCREASE 78% TO CHINA, INDIA: ENERGY MARKETS - BUSINESS WEEK
Business Week reported that, China and India may increase imports of coal by 78 percent to 337 million metric tons next year, further driving up pri ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
BANPU PLANNING PRODUCTION BOOM - BANGKOK POST
Australian, Indonesian output to lead growth
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, wants to nearly double its coal ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be soft with the Cape sector most effected which was down by 289 points and closed at 2,694 poi ...
|
|
|
Showing 5491 to 5495 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
