We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 10 January 11
COAL MONGOLIA IS INVITING YOU TO THE INTERNATIONAL COAL SECTOR INVESTORS CONFERENCE
COALspot.com - (Press Release) - The Coal Mongolian Conference will take place at Chinggis Hotel, in Ulaanbaatar on 24-25, Feb 2011. The coal bonanz ...
Monday, 10 January 11
DEWA SEEKS ADVICE ON COAL POWER PROJECT -THE NATIONAL
The Dubai utility company gets nine bids from international groups for consultancy role.
The National reported that, Dubai's utility company wil ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
COAL PRICE WILL RISE IN SHORT-TERM DUE TO AUSTRALIA FLOODS - ALBUQUERQUE EXPRESS
Albuquerque Express reported that, Queensland’s mining minister, Stephen Robertson, has warned that the Australian state’s coal mines wi ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 8.69 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the January 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS WERE FIXED AT AROUND $ 9000 PD FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The holiday season affect combined with severe flooding in Queensland ports continues to keep the market and pressure. “Suprama ...
|
|
|
Showing 5436 to 5440 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
|
| |
| |
|
