We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 15 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS FIXED AROUND $ 8K FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and has touched below 1,500 points with the cape index severely affected with the index touching 1,595 poin ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
MAKE SACRIFICES TO SAVE PLN, INDONESIA GOVT BEGS MINERS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Darwin Zahedi Saleh, Indonesia's minister of energy and mineral resources, on Friday appealed to local coal compan ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
RISING PRICES, GOVERNMENT DECREE LEAVE PLN AT LOGGERHEADS WITH COAL FIRMS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, As coal prices continue to increase, state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara faces problems in securing enough coal ...
Thursday, 13 January 11
SURGING COAL PRICES UNDERMINE PLN'S EFFICIENCY PROGRAM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, The soaring global coal prices are undermining state electricity company PT PLN's pledge to improve its operational ...
Thursday, 13 January 11
SPML INFRA TO DOUBLE INDONESIA COAL MINE OUTPUT IN TWO YEARS - DNA INDIA
DNA India reported that, Kolkata-based infrastructure company SPML Infra, formerly Subhash Projects & Marketing Ltd, will in two years nearly do ...
|
|
|
Showing 5426 to 5430 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
|
| |
| |
|
