We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 08 December 11
INDIA MAY SEE 41% ANNUAL GROWTH OF ITS COAL DEMAND DURING THE NEXT 5 YEARS - ICAP SHIPPING
India’s Ministry of Coal expects that India’s coal demand may face an annual 41% rise during the next 5 years, while its coal deficit is ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
HAREDA KRIDA GETS CONTRACT FROM BAYAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), through its subsidiary dubbed PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal (GPB), has signed ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
CAPESIZES LIFT DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the ...
Wednesday, 07 December 11
ABM INVESTAMA EYES RP6.3 TRIO REVENUE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, an energy integrated company PT ABM Investama Tbk is eyeing a 1.5 folds increase in revenue this year from Rp4. ...
Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates o ...
|
|
|
Showing 4941 to 4945 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
