We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply w ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
|
|
|
Showing 4931 to 4935 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
