We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 25 December 11
THERMAL COAL PRICES GAINED UP TO 4.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index gained 4.32 percent to US$106.36 per ton in RBCT, benchmark for South Asia and West Europe markets, for the week end ...
Saturday, 24 December 11
CHINAS LEVEL OF GROWTH TO DETERMINE COURSE OF DRY BULK MARKET IN 2012 SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest report, shipbroker Intermodal attempted to find a silver lining in the tough year that was 2011, as well as what one could expect from ...
Friday, 23 December 11
SPOT PACIFIC CAPESIZE VESSELS HAVE COMMANDED HIGH PREMIUMS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Rates in the Atlantic kept stable from last week, with a touch of negativity closer to the end. Less spot cargoes seen, and owners are ...
Friday, 23 December 11
CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN CONTRACT RENEGOTIATION - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has been renegotiating mining contracts, especially those 30-40 years old, with almost all mining companies, including PT Freeport In ...
Friday, 23 December 11
LANCO JOINS HANDS WITH BUKIT ASAM FOR INDONESIAN POWER PROJECT
COALspot.com - PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, Indonesia's state owned coal miner and Indian based Lanco Infratech Ltd plans to build steam power p ...
|
|
|
Showing 4916 to 4920 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
