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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
Sunday, 01 January 12
IS INDIA FOLLOWING INDONESIA TO STANDARDIZE COAL PRICES TO GET MAXIMUM BENEFITS?
COALspot.com - Coal India limited, an Indian state owned and world largest coal producer has introduced gross calorific value (GCV) based pricing me ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
GLOBALCOAL NEWC INDEX SURGED 2.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian market, ended substantially higher, surged 2.32 percent to US$115.47 per ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG TO BUY BUMI STAKE, SWAP CEO - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported yesterday, shareholders of Indonesian coking coal miner Borneo Lumbun ...
Friday, 30 December 11
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ISSUE PERMITS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, business associations from both the palm oil and mining sectors have suggested that the central government should re ...
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Showing 4906 to 4910 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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