We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 18 March 12
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT IN 2011 ROSE 54% TO US$ 339.56 MILLION
COALspot.com - Company revenue for the period January - December 2011 amounting to Rp 10.6 trillion (approximately US$ 1,164,835,164.84) recorded an ...
Saturday, 17 March 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAINED FIRM - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm and all segments were up except for Cape Index which was down by 2.46 pct closing at 1,466 points.
...
Saturday, 17 March 12
INDIAN GOVT FINALIZES DRAFT BILL FOR COAL REGULATOR - PTI
The coal sector would soon get a regulator as the government has finalised a draft bill for the purpose, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said Wedne ...
Friday, 16 March 12
THE PACIFIC MARKET IS FIRMING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A slightly positive trend was seen last week in the Atlantic. Skaw-Passero deliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres ...
Thursday, 15 March 12
RAINS AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF COAL WENT UP BY 22 % IN 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk, an Indonesian CCoW (3rd Generation) holder reported Wednesday a 171 percent increase in net profits ...
|
|
|
Showing 4801 to 4805 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
