We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 27 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEP RISING FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND OF LAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum this week, on the same reasons of those last week. That is, the smaller ship types are still on the ris ...
Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
|
|
|
Showing 4791 to 4795 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
