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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 May 12
EXPORT TAX WILL ERODE PROFITS, INDONESIAN COAL EXEC COMPLAINS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, A 20 percent export duty the government has imposed on 14 mineral ore products will not only take a toll on mining ...
Friday, 18 May 12
KOREA EAST WEST POWER LOOKING FOR TOTAL 2.6 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL AT FIXED PRICE FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com - Korea East West Power Co., Ltd is inviting bids to supply of 520,000 Metric Tons (per annum) of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg coal of N ...
Friday, 18 May 12
NICKEL ORE CARGOES ARE NOT SEEN IN MARKET ANYMORE DUE TO ON-GOING INDONESIAN BAN - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The market remained variable.
Fronthaul voyages both from Baltic and Black Sea paid over USD 18k/day. From USG to Cont tonnage would get ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
COAL MINERS OPPOSE EXPORT TAX, SUGGEST OUTPUT QUOTA - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, coal miners have suggested that the government apply a production quota instead of implementing an export tax in ord ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways during this week, with the mixed performance across all segments. Yesterday, the industry’s be ...
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Showing 4726 to 4730 news of total 6871 |
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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