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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 May 12
COAL EXPORTS ARE JUMPING HIGHER, BUT PRICES ARE FALLING LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31.86* million tons of coal in April 2012, compared to 30.64* million tons i ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
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Showing 4716 to 4720 news of total 6871 |
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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