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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 21 July 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft this week as all the segments were down.
The BDI was down by 6.58 pct closing at 1,037 points and the ...
Saturday, 21 July 12
INDONESIAN COMPANIES ABM INVESTAMA AND AVRA ASIA WORK OUT LONG-TERM CONTRACT - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news papaer in Indonesia reported that, ABM Investama, a company with diversified interests in coal mi ...
Friday, 20 July 12
INDONESIA-INDIA SUPRAS BEING FIXED AT $ 10K
Handy
After a stable last week, the Handysize market has experienced softening rates in the Atlantic. Ships are ballasting from India into the Atla ...
Friday, 20 July 12
HANDYSIZES PROVE RATHER ATTRACTIVE AMONG OTHER SHIPS, IN TERMS OF FUTURE RETURNS ON INVESTMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Handysize segment of the dry bulk market appears to offer the best incentive among other ship types, for a ship owners to invest in, says Interm ...
Wednesday, 18 July 12
TAIWAN POWER COMPANY TO IMPORT 0.588 MILLION TONS OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 588,000 MT tons of extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant thro ...
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Showing 4651 to 4655 news of total 6871 |
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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