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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 23 July 12
NTPC INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF LOW MOISTURE IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India’s largest electricity generator, NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
NEW CHAIRMAN FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
The Australian Coal Association (ACA) announced that Mr Ross Willims has been appointed as its new independent Chairman effective November 5 2012. M ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
CENTRAL KALIMANTAN COAL RAILWAY NETWORK WILL BE BUILT BY 2015 - THE BORNEO POST
The borneo post reported that, a declaration to build a coal railway network is signed today (12/07/2012) in front of the Indonesian Vice President ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
COAL PRICES IN MIXED TRENDS; STOCKS REMAIN HIGH AT BOTH ENDS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery fell 0.99 percent on last Friday closing (d-o-d) and 1.19 percent com ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
TATA POWER SIGNS A LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH PT ANTANG GUNUNG MERATUS, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Tata Power, India’s largest integrated power utility, last Friday announced that it has signed a long term coal suppl ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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