We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 27 April 10
S.KOREA EWP SEEKS 0.520 MILLION TONS OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea East West Power Company has called for term bids for supply of Sub-bituminous Coal for Dangjin Thermal Power Pla ...
Monday, 26 April 10
COAL INDIA NEARS PORT DEAL WITH VIZAG STEEL - DNA
DNA India reported that, Coal India Ltd (CIL), the country’s largest coal producer, is close to signing a deal to acquire space at Vizag Steel ...
Sunday, 25 April 10
THE WAITING AT INDIAN PORTS FOR COAL VESSELS WAS QUITE NORMAL - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The BDI remained unchanged this week and all other sectors also the change was not much.
The cape index continued to move up and wa ...
Saturday, 24 April 10
NTPC TO BUY COAL MINES IN KAZAKHSTAN - TELEGRAPH INDIA
Telegraph India reported that, NTPC Ltd plans to acquire coal mines and operate two thermal power plants in Kazakhstan.
“We are exploring t ...
Saturday, 24 April 10
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOUBLE IN MARCH
China's General Administration of Customs said that the country imported 15.22 million tons of coal last month, more than double the amount it impo ...
|
|
|
Showing 5861 to 5865 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
