We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 29 April 10
SOUTH AFRICAN ROUNDS BACK TO INDIA SUPRAS CAN ACHIEVE AROUND MID 20S
Handy
Atlantic markets remain firm. Supramaxes open in USG are now achieving low/mid&n ...
Thursday, 29 April 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES INKS KEY COAL EXPORT CONTRACT WITH YUDEAN FARNON - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reprted that, Kangaroo Resources has secured an initial export sales contract for coal from the company’s operating coal p ...
Wednesday, 28 April 10
UNITED TRACTORS FOCUSES ON MINING AS IT SEEKS TO DIVERSIFY REVENUE SOURCES - JG
The Jakarta globe reported that, PT United Tractors, Indonesia’s biggest heavy-equipment distributor and mining contractor, aims to have its m ...
Wednesday, 28 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET
After a prolonged period of anticipation and a stalled dry bulk market in terms of freight rates, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Ind ...
Tuesday, 27 April 10
CAPESIZES UP, PANAMAXES DOWN - BRS
It was Capesizes up, Panamaxes down this week as the latter experienced a correction after its recent gains. Period rates for Panamaxes remain firm ...
|
|
|
Showing 5856 to 5860 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
