We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 25 May 10
KALIMANTAN COAL RAIL PROJECT RUNS INTO COST DELAY - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakart globe reported that, A$1.5 billion coal rail and port project planned for Central Kalimantan may be delayed by a year after a review of t ...
Tuesday, 25 May 10
BUMPER YEAR PREDICTED FOR INDONESIAN COAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta globe reported that, In The country’s coal output may reach 320 million tons this year, up from 300 million tons in 2009, as produ ...
Tuesday, 25 May 10
CHINA'S COAL SHIPMENTS VIA ITS MAIN PORTS RISE BY 13.1 PERCENT IN APRIL
According to the data issued by China's Ministry of Industry and Information on May 21, in April total coal shipments via China's main ports reach ...
Monday, 24 May 10
SAMTAN TO SELL KIDECO TO INDIKA ENERGY?
Insider Stories reported that, Parent company of Indonesia's coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO), PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) aims to boo ...
Monday, 24 May 10
INDIA'S ESSAR SHIPPING BEGIN COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS OF BULK TERMINAL AT HAZIRA
COALspot.com: Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics Ltd. commences commercial operations of Essar Bulk Terminal at Hazira, one of India's largest dr ...
|
|
|
Showing 5816 to 5820 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
