We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 27 May 10
DRY BULK RATES REACH 2010 HIGHS, BUT FUTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
This week is proving to be a milestone for the dry bulk market, as the Baltic Dry Index has propelled itself at never before seen levels for 2010. Y ...
Wednesday, 26 May 10
ADANI GROUP EYES AFRICA FOR COAL MINING PROJECTS
India Info Line reported that, After acquiring coal mines for importing Indonesian coal to run its thermal power plants in the country, the Adani Gr ...
Wednesday, 26 May 10
DRY BULK MARKET SHOOTS UP, CLOSES IN ON POST-CRISIS ERA HIGHS
In an opposite trend than that of the previous week, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a benchmark for tracking costs to haul commodities at sea, shot up ...
Wednesday, 26 May 10
BUMI TO CUT UP TO USD 1 BILLION DEBT IN 12 MONTHS
Press Release : PT Bumi Resources Tbk. announced yesterday that it has revived its intent to issue non preemptive shares and added this to the agend ...
Tuesday, 25 May 10
COAL PRODUCTION MAY REACH 320 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miners expect to produce as much as 320 million tons of coal this year, an increase of nearly 7 perc ...
|
|
|
Showing 5811 to 5815 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
|
| |
| |
|
