We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 17 July 10
BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR COKING COAL - MINING MX & HELLENIC SHIPPING
Mining Mx reported that, the coking coal market has better long-term fundamentals than the iron ore market, according to a recent research rep ...
Friday, 16 July 10
CHINA EXPORTS 10.14 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN H1 OF 2010
China exported 10.14 million tonnes of coal in the first half of this year, down 13.1% compared with the corresponding period of last year, accordin ...
Thursday, 15 July 10
SMC TO PURSUE MINDANAO COAL MINING PROJECTS
Philippine Daily Inquirer reported that, DIVERSIFYING CONGLOMERATE San Miguel Corp. is inclined to pursue its coal mining projects in Mindanao ...
Thursday, 15 July 10
ADANI ENTERPRISES WILL BUY $1 BILLION COAL MINE FROM LINC ENERGY - TOP NEWS
Top News reported that, Adani Enterprises has almost managed to obtain a coal mine from Linc Energy for $1 billion in Queensland, Australia. This mi ...
Thursday, 15 July 10
ADANI TO DEVELOP COAL EXPORT TERMINAL IN AUSTRALIA - BUSINESS STANDARD
Business-Standard reported that, The Adani Group, promoter of Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone (MPSEZ), today said it has been selected as the ...
|
|
|
Showing 5721 to 5725 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
