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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 20 July 10
CHURCHILL PLANNING TO PRODUCE 35 MILLION TONNES PER ANNUM FROM ITS EAST KUTAI COAL PROJECT
According to Churchill's website, the East Kutai Coal Project is a world-class thermal coal deposit, with a JORC Mining Reserve of 961 milli ...
Tuesday, 20 July 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET FINDING SOME SUPPORT, AS OWNERS TAKE CAPE SIZES OFF THE MARKET
With the Baltic Dry Index finally having reached bottom, at least according to market analysts, the dry bulk industry is looking to begin its long r ...
Monday, 19 July 10
INDONESIA EXPORTS 24.49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN JUNE 2010
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, exported 141.249 million tons of coal in the first half of this year. In June 2010, Indone ...
Monday, 19 July 10
CHINA ONCE AGAIN DOMINATING SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES, WHILE OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE RAISES CONCERN
The ending of the week brought a cheerful note among dry bulk ship owners, as the sinking benchmark of the industry, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fina ...
Saturday, 17 July 10
THE DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The indices continued the downward trend this week also with BDI at 1,720 points and cape size index at 1676 points and the charter ra ...
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Showing 5716 to 5720 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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