We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 22 February 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET IS IMPROVING IN THE PACIFIC
BRS - A 10% rise in the BDI this week, mostly on the back of Panamax rates and improvements in the Supramax market in the Pacific. For the Capes, ra ...
Monday, 21 February 11
CHURCHILL MINING RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT INTEREST, PROPOSALS TO DEVELOP EAST KUTAI COAL PROJECT - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining has received a number of specific proposals to fund and develop its massive East Kutai coa ...
Monday, 21 February 11
ABOLISH 5% DUTY ON COAL IMPORTS: SHINDE
Indian Express reported that, with acute coal shortage of domestic coal threatening to destabilise its power generation plans, the power ministry ha ...
Saturday, 19 February 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market was quite firm this week with freight rates in South east asia and India/Feast almost up by 30 pct.
However towards end ...
Thursday, 17 February 11
COAL-GEN EUROPE 2011 REAFFIRMS THE IMPORTANCE OF COAL
Press Release: The third COAL-GEN Europe conference and exhibition, kicked off on Tuesday 15 February, with leading experts, professionals and compa ...
|
|
|
Showing 5371 to 5375 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
|
| |
| |
|
