We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 24 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING GROUND, CAPESIZES SUFFERING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market lost further ground yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index was rapidly falling, ending the session d ...
Thursday, 24 February 11
SUPRAS ARE FIXED AT CLOSE TO 10K FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA WITH COAL - FEARNBULK
Handy
After a short lived surge in rates the Atlantic market has flattened out due to too many spot vessels. The USGulf has cooled down somewhat f ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF COAL COULD TRIP MEGA POWER PLANT - THE ECONOMIC TIMES
The Economic Times, an Indian leading news paper reported that, an acute shortage of domestic coal is threatening to destabilize new power generatio ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET BACK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The two week rise of dry bulk freight rates seems to have come to a halt this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lo ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
INDONESIA NEEDS TO REVISE EXPORT BAN ON 5600 GAD COAL EXPORT - INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government may be forced to revise its 2014 timeline for the proposed ban on all low quality coal exports, Patrick Han ...
|
|
|
Showing 5366 to 5370 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
|
| |
| |
|
