We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 16 June 11
BOOSTING THE USE OF LOW CARBON ENERGY FOR A BETTER WORLD
Bali, Indonesia host of world renewable energy congress – Indonesia, international conference & exhibition on renewable energy and energy ...
Thursday, 16 June 11
FREIGHT MARKET FAILS TO RECOVER - DREWRY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
With demand failing to improve enough to contain the colossal increases in supply, the dry bulk freight market stayed near the dreadfully low levels ...
Thursday, 16 June 11
VALLAR CONTROLS 84.7 PERCENT STAKE IN BERAU COAL - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, London-based investment company Vallar Plc, via its subsidiary dubbed Vallar Investments UK Limited, today announced ...
Wednesday, 15 June 11
INDONESIA NEW COAL POLICY WORRIES INDIA POWER FIRMS - MYDIGITALFC
Tata Power, Adani group, Lanco Infratech and Reliance Power, among other Indian coal importers, are waiting to assess the impact of the Indonesian g ...
Wednesday, 15 June 11
BAYAN RESOURCES OWNS 56 PERCENT KANGAROO - INSIDER STORIES
Australia-listed coal miner Kangaroo Resources Limited (KRL) has obtained final approval from its shareholders to complete its US$277 million acquis ...
|
|
|
Showing 5226 to 5230 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
|
| |
| |
|
