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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 23 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS EXHIBITING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be unable to climb at new highs this week, showing signs of weakness, across most ship types. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry ...
Wednesday, 22 June 11
BOOMING INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS - BLEEDING INDIAN POWER INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 28.962 Million tons of coal in May 2011, up by 15.86 percent compared to April export of about 24.995 m ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
SURGE IN PRODUCTION AND PRICES TO PUSH BUKIT ASAMS NET PROFITS ABOVE RP 3T - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
State-owned coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam expects its net income to increase about 50 percent this year on the back of rising ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
COURT BATTLE PUTS MASSIVE COAL PROJECT IN JEOPARDY - KOREA JOONGANG DAILY
As Korean companies race to exploit Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, two companies have been locked in a court case that has become so ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET TURNS RED AGAIN ON VESSEL OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk entered this week on a negative turn, with the industry’s benchmark the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreating by 0.35% to end the ses ...
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Showing 5216 to 5220 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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