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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
Sunday, 28 August 11
FREIGHT MARKET COULD BE FIRM NEXT MONTH - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend first half of the week . However, towards the end of the week lost momentum and the BDI ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
JAPANESE BULK CARRIER SETS RECORD ON NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - BARENTS OBSERVER
The Northern Sea Route will see its third record in less than a month when the largest ever bulk carrier to take the route leaves Murmansk next week ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
RBCT-INDIA ROUNDS FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12K - FEARNBULK
Handy
Stable but very positional markets across all segments in the Atlantic: the gap between owners and charterers rate ideas is building up as o ...
Friday, 26 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG ACQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL 40% SHARES IN BARA PRIMA AGUNG
COALspot.com - PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk, has signed an acquisition agreement to acquire 40% of PT Bara Prima A ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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