We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohm ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
|
|
|
Showing 5101 to 5105 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
|
| |
| |
|
