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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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